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Understanding the Shift Toward Private Markets: Insights into Aging IPOs and Tech Growth in 2025

The number of publicly traded companies is shrinking, with IPO candidates now waiting much longer and growing larger before going public. As a result, most high-growth technology firms remain private, making it harder for public market investors to access these opportunities.
September 12, 2025

Public market investors confront a substantial reduction in the number of publicly traded companies available for their portfolios. Companies that choose to pursue IPOs now display far greater maturity and operational scale before transitioning to public status. In 1999, the median age of IPO candidates was 5yrs. This median expanded to 8yrs in 2022 and now stands at 14yrs. This clear progression indicates deliberate strategic choices by businesses to delay their public market entry for longer periods. As a result, investors seeking high-growth opportunities in public markets encounter a more limited range of potential targets.er than 5 companies project growth rates above 30% for 2026. Last year, over 100 Series B or later rounds went to private firms exceeding that growth rate. With these observations, it becomes increasingly notable that many high-growth companies now exist mostly in private markets.Abundant private capital and advanced financing support this for high-growth companies, enabling success without public participation. In short, the widening private-public divide will reshape investment strategies and opportunities in the years ahead.

The history of IPOs highlights key patterns behind this trend. IPOs surged in 2020 and 2021, and by contrast, equity capital markets contracted sharply in 2022 and 2023. Many companies postponed IPO plans due to low valuations and volatility. In 2025, with inflation easing and rates declining, the IPO market shows signs of revival and momentum. Financial sponsors, hold about $2.6T in uncommitted capital, as of mid-2025. This is paired with a growing stock of aging private-equity assets needing monetization. This pool of resources and mature holdings sets the stage for an IPO resurgence, featuring larger, more established companies with strong sponsor support.

Over the past decade, the technology sector has led in growth and innovation. Due to maturation in private markets, notable firms like a16z have shared observations of demonstrable growth and meaningful value expansion occurring while companies remain private, out of view for most public market investors. For example, there are more than 1,200 private technology firms are valued over $1B and hold an aggregate value exceeding $4.5T. This equals nearly 15% of the Nasdaq's total market capitalization. Excluding the Mag 7, the share rises to over 35%. The number of private technology companies with enterprise values over $1B exceeds that of comparable Nasdaq-listed public companies with $1B-plus market caps by more than 2x. This reveals a large investable universe of technology companies that sit beyond the reach of public-only investors.

Private company growth and value expansion also impact public market structures. In public software, internet, and fintech, fewer than 5 companies project growth rates above 30% for 2026. Last year, over 100 Series B or later rounds went to private firms exceeding that growth rate. With these observations, it becomes increasingly notable that many high-growth companies now exist mostly in private markets.

Abundant private capital and advanced financing support this for high-growth companies, enabling success without public participation. In short, the widening private-public divide will reshape investment strategies and opportunities in the years ahead.